Thomas S. Gundersen

Thomas S. Gundersen

Researcher and Adjunct Associate Professor of Economics

Research

You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.

Journal Articles

The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price

Published in the Energy Journal, 2020

This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to show that U.S. shale oil supply shocks significantly impacted global oil prices, accounting for up to 13% of the price variation between 2003 and 2015—more than previously found. However, despite increased U.S. production since 2010, these supply shocks only began lowering prices in late 2013, suggesting temporary transmission frictions likely due to logistical and technological challenges in the downstream supply chain.

Recommended citation: Gundersen, Thomas S. (2020). "The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price" the Energy Journal. 41(1).
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Working papers

Koronapandemien i en makroøkonomisk modell

Published in Samfunnsøkonomen (the Economist), 2025

English title: “The COVID-19 pandemic in a macroeconomic model”. The significant variations in key economic variables during the COVID-19 pandemic pose a challenge for models calibrated on historical time series. In this article, we present a pragmatic solution for addressing the pandemic period in a DSGE model for the Norwegian economy. We introduce shocks into the macroeconomic model NORA that are only active during the pandemic years. This approach allows us to analyze the relative contributions of various drivers of fluctuations in economic activity during the pandemic. We demonstrate that failing to account for pandemic-specific shocks can lead to a misjudgment of the economic consequences of fiscal policy design. We illustrate this by examining the impact of a permanent increase in the value-added tax rate on economic activity. In a model without pandemic-specific shocks, the economic cost is underestimated by a factor of four.

The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence from Micro Data

Published in Norges Bank Working Papers, 2022

This study finds that shale oil producers in the U.S. respond positively to favorable oil price signals by timing production decisions such as well completion and refracturing, based on a proprietary dataset of shale wells across ten U.S. states spanning nearly two decades.

Recommended citation: Aastveit, K.A., Bjørnland, H.C. and Gundersen, T.S. (2022). "The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence from Micro Data." Norges Bank Working Papers. 10/2022.
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OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets

Published in CAMP Working paper series, 2021

We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. The model predicts that the frequency, duration, and supply schedule associated with each regime may persistently deviate from average behavior. We find evidence for the theoretical predictions of our model in historical Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) output using a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressive model of the global oil market.

Recommended citation: Gundersen, Thomas S., Hvinden, Even S. (2021). "OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets." CAMP Working paper series. 01/2021. BI Norwegian Business School.
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Policy work, reports, op-eds, media etc.

Utredning for lønnsdannelsen og norsk økonomi

Published in Statistics Norway Report series, 2023

Utredning for Frontfagsmodellutvalget (Holden IV).

Recommended citation: Bjertnæs, G. H. M., Boug, P., Brasch, T. v., Bye, B., Cappelen, Å., Fæhn, T., Graber, M., Gundersen, T.S., Hammersland, R., Holmøy, E., Hungnes, H., Jasinski, M., Kaushal, K. R., Kolsrud, D., Quaghebeur, E., Skretting, J., Stølen, N., M., Tretvoll, H. & Vigtel, T. C. (2023). "Utfordringer for lønnsdannelsen og norsk økonomi. Utredning for Frontfagsmodellutvalget". Rapporter 2023/47, Statistisk Sentralbyrå.
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