Koronapandemien i en makroøkonomisk modell
Published in Samfunnsøkonomen (the Economist), 2025
English title: “The COVID-19 pandemic in a macroeconomic model”. The significant variations in key economic variables during the COVID-19 pandemic pose a challenge for models calibrated on historical time series. In this article, we present a pragmatic solution for addressing the pandemic period in a DSGE model for the Norwegian economy. We introduce shocks into the macroeconomic model NORA that are only active during the pandemic years. This approach allows us to analyze the relative contributions of various drivers of fluctuations in economic activity during the pandemic. We demonstrate that failing to account for pandemic-specific shocks can lead to a misjudgment of the economic consequences of fiscal policy design. We illustrate this by examining the impact of a permanent increase in the value-added tax rate on economic activity. In a model without pandemic-specific shocks, the economic cost is underestimated by a factor of four.
Recommended citation: Gundersen, T.S., Quaghebeur, E., Tretvoll, H. (2025). "Koronapandemien i en makroøkonomisk modell" Samfunnsøkonomen. 1/2025.